Over the last few days, the discourse in the media seems to have been dominated by war of words between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress. At the centre of this discourse are exchanges - the verdict is still out on who-said-what - targeted at Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And poor Mani Shankar Aiyar, now suspended from the Congress, is struggling to provide an explanation or the context to what-on-earth-prompted him to call the PM 'neech'.
Much of the campaign in 2014 was dominated by political capital made from his 'chaiwalla' comment, and one would have thought that Aiyar and his Congress friends would have learnt how personal attacks on Mr Modi don't bear fruit. Here was Rahul Gandhi, the president-elect of the Congress party, indulging the Prime Minister and his incumbent BJP - a party that has ruled Gujarat since 1995 - in a game of 10 questions - and along came the 'neech' comment and put paid to a strategy that many say was well thought out.
My gut feeling is that this 'tu-tu-main-main' will not impact the outcome greatly. Media often plays to political rhetoric and, sitting in Delhi, the two principal political parties trading barbs seems to be a good way to cover the goings-on in Gujarat. On then ground these may not be reflective of the concerns of Maqsud bhai and Mansukh bhai. The people of Gujarat have made up their mind and they have real issues - unemployment and the impact of GST and demonetisation seem to be the pervading themes. The rehtoric will not sway how they vote.
Too much should not be read into the poll percentage - 68% - down from last elections 72% but still a healthy turnout. 89 of the 182 constituencies have voted and the fates of 977 candidates are already sealed in EVMs. While many pollsters have predicted a decline in fortunes for the BJP in the areas of south Gujarat and Saurashtra that have polled, these are comparisons to the wildly successful Lok Sabha campaign of 2014. Extrapolate those and the BJP won in 85 of the 89 seats that voted in the first phase. A more realistic comparison would be the 2012 assembly elections where the party won 63 of these 89 seats. An encore would not only see the BJP to a comfortable majority but would also do away with all the anti-incumbency talk. Sure, the BJP's claims of winning 150 seats in Gujarat could have been born out of political chest-thumping and bravado, but getting almost a two-thirds majority in a state that they've ruled for 22 years is definitely creditable.
The Hardik Patel Factor
The Congress is not dictating the discourse in this campaign - what it has successfully managed to do is piggy-back on certain situations and ride a wave. The question that pundits don't seem to agree upon is how the Hardik Patel factor will affect the BJP's fortunes, but what is there is plain sight for every one to see is that Hardik has done all the heavy-lifting for the Congress. There is no denying the fact that there has been resentment is many sections of Gujarat's population over demonetisation and GST - both measures hit business hard. But this resentment may have been overestimated - on my trip to the state a month ago, the common refrain I heard talking to both members of the Patidaar (Patel) community and traders was 'gussa hain, gaddar nahi' (we're angry but we aren't traitors).
With all eyes on the second phase, the Hardik Patel-factor may play a role in North Gujarat but will hardly influence voters in the central parts of the state where there are 61 seats. It is here that the BJP could offset some losses from other regions. The overbearing Paatidar campaign against the party could also consolidate backward caste votes in its favour.
With the Prime Minister fervently on the campaign trail and responding to the barbs against him, the spotlight has shifted to emotive issues and optics - and even Congress' new President seems to be falling prey to these - the 'janeudhari brahman' is now seen at temples.
People in 93 constituencies will cast their votes on Thursday, December 14. And put to rest this debate on temple visits, oonch-neech and what-have-you. Meanwhile, did anyone miss the manifestos this time? Just in case you did - the Congress released theirs on December 4 and then BJP on the eve of polling. In Gujarat, it seems, polls don't even need manifestos - the lip-service paid by both the principal parties certainly suggests that.
(This opinion piece was first published on Wion.com)
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)
