New Delhi: With a few days left for polling to commence in Uttar Pradesh, Zee News conducted a Final Opinion Poll for the 403 Assembly seats in the state, to gauge the voters’ mood.
Zee News Editor-In-Chief Sudhir Chaudhary in his show DNA on Friday (February 4) analysed the electoral situation in the state after the announcement of candidates for all 403 seats.
The survey, conducted by Zee News and Design Boxed–a political campaign management company, had a sample size of 2,20,000. The total number of voters in Uttar Pradesh is about 15 crore– which implies that this opinion poll surveyed one person out of every 700 voters.
Who is the choice for the Chief Minister post in Uttar Pradesh?
Zee News Final Opinion Poll predicts a direct contest between BJP’s Yogi Adityanath and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav. Yogi Adityanath is the first choice for UP CM with 47% people preferring him. He is followed by Akhilesh Yadav who is preferred by 34% of voters. BSP supremo Mayawati is preferred by 11% while only 4% of those surveyed said they wanted to see Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as the next CM.
Seat-wise opinion poll projection
According to Zee News Opinion Poll, BJP seems to be easily crossing the majority mark. BJP is likely to win between 241-263 seats, while Samajwadi Party can get 130-151 seats. BSP will have to contend with 4-9 seats and Congress will have to settle with 3-7 seats. The others are expected to bag 2- 6 seats.
How different will the 2022 outcome be from the 2017 results?
The ruling BJP is witnessing an overall advantage of only 1% votes. In 2017, BJP grabbed 40% votes, whereas this time the saffron party is likely to secure 41%, as per the opinion poll. Samajwadi Party can see a huge jump of 12% vote share from 22% in 2017 to 34% this time. The BSP can face a huge loss of around 10% votes. From 22% in 2017, the figure can decline to 12% in the coming polls. For Congress, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's election slogan "Ladki Hoon, Lad Sakti Hoon" seems not working as there will be no change in the party’s position. Congress will again bag 6% vote share like 2017.
5 takeaways from Final Opinion poll:
1. This time in Uttar Pradesh, there is a direct contest between Yogi Adityanath and Akhilesh Yadav.
2. The BSP's prospect is bleak and its vote share is getting transferred to Akhilesh Yadav's SP.
3. Akhilesh Yadav is reaping the benefit of ‘social engineering’ and farmers’ protests.
4. There is no anti-incumbency wave against Yogi Adityanath. He remains the first choice for UP CM.
5. Despite Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s efforts, there is no improvement in the performance of Congress.
