Arun Chaubey
The politics of Himachal Pradesh has witnessed the shifting of power between the Congress and the BJP in the last four decades, but the emerging political scenario in this Assembly election seems to dodge the earlier trend.
The ruling Congress under the astute leadership of Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh is confident of repeating its term while the BJP, by projecting Prem Kumar Dhumal as its Chief Ministerial candidate, has put an end to a possible issue of leadership being raised by the Congress to corner it in the second phase of polls slated on December 19.
The Congress, which in the last Assembly election of 2003 had won 43 seats out of total 68, is expecting to repeat its performance over the 65 seats, of which it had won 40. It had also won as many as 10 of the 16 reserved (SC) seats.
Although the state has not witnessed the repeat of any ruling dispensation in the last four decades, the Congress is determined to achieve this feat. It has deputed as many as 40 star campaigners including Sonia Gandhi, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh, along with Rahul Gandhi, three CMs of the party ruled states and several Union ministers to woo the electorate.
If we keep the anti-incumbency factor aside, the denial of tickets has created many rebels in Congress. The ticket allocated to Sonia Gandhi’s former cook’s son Prakash Chanda Karad from Arki in Solan district has irked senior leader Dharmpal Thakur. Presently Deputy Speaker in the Virbhadra Singh Ministry, Dharmpal has won thrice from Arki constituency. Similarly, the party ticket to late PM Rajiv Gandhi’s security commando Nandlal from Rampur by replacing six-term MLA Sindhi Ram (reserved seat) has also created murmurs. Leaders like Sanjay Ratan from Jwalamukhi, Jagdish Sipahiya from Thural, along with many other key leaders in the constituencies of Hamirpur and Mandi districts, are bent on defying the party diktat.
The Congress, however, has managed better as far as the issue of leadership is concerned. Vidya Stokes has already patched up with Virbhadra Singh, while other contenders for the top post like state chief Viplave Thakur and Sukh Ram are satisfied as they have got tickets for their kin.
The party, therefore appears confident to benefit from the BJP’s infighting and get the advantage in the Kangra region, besides highlighting the scandal-ridden regime of Dhumal between 1998 and 2003.
However, by finalising the leadership issue in the state, the BJP has managed unity only on the surface. The sitting MP from Hamirpur, Prem Kumar Dhumal’s emergence as the Chief Ministerial candidate has not calmed down factional feud. A third dimension to this struggle has also been added under the leadership of Jai Ram Thakur and Mohinder Pande, the state president and organising secretary respectively. They are opposed to both Dhumal and Shanta Kumar and are in favour of a new face.
The party reportedly calmed down former CM Shanta Kumar with the promise of nominating him for the lone RS seat from the state, and has allocated the constituency he represented in the Assembly to his close associate Praveen Sharma. Dhumal, who is contesting from Bamsan, has the added responsibility of controlling his rebellious supporters as a majority of tickets have been given to Shanta’s supporters.
By bringing Dhumal to the forefront, the BJP has also tried to shift the battle from its bastion of lower areas of the state to the upper Himachal region, that consists of the districts of Shimla, Sirmour and Manali- the Congress strongholds. Besides, it has also girdled up its loins to highlight the Congress’ neglect of the lower regions and make a dent in the upper region.
The battle under Shanta Kumar’s leadership, in the present scheme of things, would have rather centred over divide between upper and lower regions. Besides, the party is also not in a position to antagonise the strong lobbies of the state government employees and the apple growers, who were at the receiving end during Shanta’s regime in early 90s.
The BJP, which contested 68 seats in 2003, won 16 and lost security deposits on three seats, has so far received over 500 applications for 65 Assembly seats. The rush for tickets has also created many rebellions in the party. The dissidents are almost in every district as the Assembly constituencies of Kumarsen, Chaupal, Nurpur, Banjar, Kotakhalur and Dun are likely to witness party leaders contesting as Independents. Former Education Minister Karna Singh has joined BSP, while the tickets of several prominent leaders including former Excise Minister Praven Sharma, former state chief of Mahila Morcha Vimala Kashyap and Ex-IPS A N Sharma have been cancelled.
Amidst this scenario, the BSP appears to be reaping the benefits as its state general secretary Dile Ram said that the party is getting immense support. Senior Congress leader Dharmveer Dhami has also defected to it.
If we look at BSP’s poll prospects, it certainly has bettered itself in comparison to the last elections. Of the 16 reserved (SC) seats, the Congress had won a maximum of 10 seats, while the rest were equally divided between the BJP and the independents. In the wake of anti-incumbency and rebellion, the BSP, if it has done its mathematics correctly, is likely to win seats in double digits.
It would be too far-fetched to come to any conclusion, but if BSP manages well the key to government formation can be in its hand, as neither the Congress nor the BJP appear to be confident of sweeping the polls.
