Shafey Danish
For a dictator General Pervez Musharraf is quite atypical. He has none of the gun slinging bravado of a Saddam Hussain, or the narrow brutality of a Than Shwe. Neither does he seem to delight in the grandiose killings that the Hitlers and the Stalins of this world delight in. Come to think of it, he has not even named a monument after himself.
That is why one may be forgiven for taking him to be something more benign, more sophisticated than a mere dictator. But let’s not make any mistakes about it: General Musharraf, however well he may have managed his public image, is nothing less than one.
He chooses his moments carefully, but when he does choose them he can be as brutal as any other. The systematic political repression that he unleashed after taking office is a case in point. The storming of the Lal Masjid, in which, officially, more than a100 people died, most of them young girls, is another instance.
The Economy
Yet it cannot be gainsaid that Pakistan has fared well under him. In fact his rule has been a panacea to the ailing economy, which is now one of the fastest growing in Asia. Foreign reserves has grown from a mere $1 billion when he took office to $16 billion now. The GDP has grown from $71.5 billion in 2002 to $108 billion in 2005. At Purchasing power parity (PPP) the economy is the 25th largest at $475.5 billion. The growth rate touched 7% in 2007.
When Musharraf took office, the economy was in a sorry state. Debt had grown to 82% of the GDP in 2002 and almost 35% of the government revenues went in paying the interest on this huge debt. Economic restrictions, imposed in the wake of nuclear tests conducted in 1998 had further crippled the economy. One major step in the reform of the economy was the normalization of relations with India. As a result both India and Pakistan has been able to benefit from the growth of cross border trade. Musharraf gave the go ahead to talks on building a gas pipeline from Iran, through Pakistan to India. The project was estimated to generate $700 million per year in transit fees for Pakistan.
Post 9/11 Pakistan became a frontline ally of the US. Economic sanctions were lifted, and substantial amounts aid money started flowing into the country. The need for the gas pipeline considerably diminished for Paksitan, but, typical of Musharraf’s pragmatist approach, the project was not abandoned.
He continued to build economic ties with India. On August 2-3, 2007 the commerce secretaries of the two countries met to discuss further economic liberalization. They reached the significant decision of increasing bilateral trade from $1.7 billion to $10 billion by 2010. The two countries further decided to improve transport links, expand the trade basket, reduce tariffs on a larger number of products and assist each other in capacity building. Thus relations between the two countries have moved towards
normalization even though officially Pakistan sticks to the stand that relations cannot be normalized without solving the Kashmir issue. Due to these reforms the economy is performing like never before. The Karachi Stock Exchange has regularly featured among the best performing benchmarks in Asia. As of September 2007, it was trading above the 12,000 mark.
Ties with the US
In a curious twist of history, Pakistan where public opinion is stridently anti American, has been a ally of the US since its formation. Yet it also a country which has faced the most sanctions of all US allies. The sanctions imposed after the nuclear tests it conducted in 1998 were particularly devastating. General Musharrarf’s seizing power, in contravention of democratic norms did not exactly help matters.
Yet all this changed after the General agreed to give full support to the US in its war against terrorism. It has not only received substantial aid as a frontline ally of the US but also diplomatic and military support. While aid, in the three years before 9/11, was a paltry $9 million dollar, in the 3 years after it, it grew to $4.8 billion.
America’s designating Paksitan as a ‘major non- NATO ally’ of the US, has made Pakistan eligible to purchase high end military hardware from the US, which was previously out of its reach.
Musharraf has managed to get aid where sanctions should have been expected. He has also saved the county the embarrassment of handing over nuclear scientist A Q Khan to the US. All this is certainly to the General’s credit.
Yet America has not been blinded by this bonhomie. It has refused to extend the same treatment to Pakistan that it has extended to India in terms of Nuclear treaty. Recently, in a sign that relations may be fraying, America passed legislation tying aid to Pakistan’s actions against terrorists. Even though Musharraf has averted a confrontation with the US for now, Pakistan’s fast radicalizing society would sooner or later bring it in conflict with US interests.
Freedom of Speech
It is a rare dictator that can allow the untrammeled exercise of the freedom of expression; and Pervez Musharraf does not fall within this category.
While he is not a Hitler or a Stalin – he has often backed down under protests – he has demonstrated time and again that he would not hesitate to muzzle the media if it decides to go against him. Though, nominally he continues to support freedom of expression and often makes liberal sounding declarations.
The censorship is mostly in the form of financial and political pressure, but sometimes it translates into laws curtailing the freedom of the media, or actual physical intimidation. One such instance was banning coverage of the Judicial crisis after the removal of Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. During the protests, scores of journalists, scribes and cameramen were beaten by the police.
Earlier, in January and February of 2005, the offices of the dailies Jang and Awam were attacked. The office of Geo TV in Karachi was also ransacked.
On the 2nd of July the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulation Authority (PEMRA) was empowered to ban the coverage of the judicial crisis even on private channels.
As a result, Geo TV, and Aaj TV, two major private channels, were unavailable in large parts of the country. This was without doubt, a political muzzling of freedom. Later, the decree was lifted.
The government also uses the political parties to do its work by proxy. During the campaign for the restoration of Justice Chaudhary, many journalists and reporters received death threats, some were physically assaulted and some were also killed. All this does not augur well for freedom of expression in Pakistan.
But one must understand that the very fact that the people are able to come out in the streets and protest against the violations of their rights – and there are doing so quite visibly and vocally – speaks for a certain amount of freedom existing in the country.
From here to beyond
If recent events are any indication, Musharraf’s exercise of unfettered power is coming to an end. History would take its time in determining whether his impact on Pakistan has been benign or pernicious; but that there has been a major impact cannot be denied.
He found the Pakistani economy nearly bankrupt and under sanctions, when he took office in 1999. Today when he is about to stand for his first presidential election as a civilian, the economy is among the best performing in the region.
This, and the turnaround in Pakistan’s ties with the US should be counted among his most significant contributions.
He has also irreversibly changed the nature of ties with India. This despite being the head of the Pakistan army, which has historically opposed any compromise with India. Any elected government that comes to power after him can have no excuse not to take forward the process.
It seems nearly certain that Musharraf would remain at the helm of power in Pakistan for at least the next five years. With a loyalist as the military chief and the cooperation of the Pakistan’s Peoples Party (PPP) he should not face any major challenges.
On November 3, 2007, only days before a bench of the Supreme Court of Pakistan was to decide on a petition challenging the constitutional validity of his re-election as President, Musharraf, as Chief of Army Staff, declared a State of Emergency that lasted until December 15, 2007. And on November 24, 2007, the Pakistan Election Commission confirmed his re-election as President. Just four days later, the General shed his military uniform and handed over the reigns of Army to Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, to continue as a civilian President.
But in the long run he would be judged by the changes he brought about in the economy, politics, and Pakistan’s relations with India. Some of them positive and some pernicious, whether the positive influences outweigh the pernicious ones– we will simply have to wait and see.
