Ritesh K Srivastava
Ever since the Election Commission announced its decision to hold Assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir, divisive politics of the region has come to fore once again. With the election fever shooting up with every passing day, the race for the hot seat has gained momentum.
Major political parties have blown the election bugle and started their election campaigns with a bang, amidst hope to get the authority to rule the state and its people post elections. However, this time also, the political fraternity of the state seems to be heavily divided between issues of national integration and separatism to gather votes. At a time when the Election Commission is committed to hold elections as per schedule, the politicians in Jammu & Kashmir appear to be debating regional and religious issues and the legitimacy of elections and whether it would be a panacea for all that ails the state.
Like previous elections, major issues which are expected to dominate the electoral process this year are the same - the self rule or autonomy for J&K, Amarnath row, separatism, militancy, presence of security forces and other issues including development, unemployment, education, electricity and water.
Though crucial, the issues pertaining to development have always taken a back seat when ever the elections were held in J&K. This election will also see a tug-of-war among the politicians, vying with each other, to wrest control of the state while pretending to be the true representatives of the Awam.
The electoral process aims to end the political uncertainty that has prevailed in the state since the Assembly was dissolved in July and the state was put under the President’s Rule after the Congress-led government headed by Ghulam Nabi Azad collapsed, following withdrawal of support by its coalition partner, the PDP over the Amarnath land transfer row.
Amarnath land controversy
The Amaranth land controversy, which put the state on the boil and almost delayed polls in the state, will be the primary political weapon in this election. It has already taken centre stage for many parties looking to weave their strategies around it, and to use it for maximum electoral gains.
Although, the festering Amarnath land row was resolved following an agreement between the state government and the group spearheading the movement, the dispute has exposed the communal mindset and the divisive politics in the state.
However, the temperature in the Kashmir Valley has been soaring since then and the political parties are fully aware of its fall out on the elections.
The controversy put the Congress and the PDP on the back foot, since the two parties were involved in the transfer of nearly 40 hectares of land to the Amarnath shrine board in the Valley on May 26.
The move prompted widespread protests in the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley and the order was revoked. The cancellation triggered counter-agitation in the Hindu-dominated Jammu region. What followed were days of curfew and shutdowns that snowballed into the state being polarised between Jammu and Kashmir.
On Aug 31, the government attempted a settlement by setting aside the land for the Amarnath board but specifying that it was only for the duration of the annual pilgrimage.
The breakthrough in the negotiations evoked mixed response with street celebrations in Jammu while Kashmir Valley witnessed sporadic violent protests against the agreement, which was rejected by PDP and separatist groups but welcomed by BJP, NC and VHP.
The conflict over the piece of land pitted Kashmiri Muslims and Hindus in J&K against each other while threatening the division of the state on religious lines. At least 50 people were killed in the violence.
Blame game
Riding high on the success of its agitation over the Amarnath row, the saffron brigade is now devising strategies to open its account and strengthen its political base in the state.
A war of words has started between the archrivals - the BJP and the Congress – who have hurled allegations of delaying and fuelling the agitation against each other. The Congress, which is still to recover from its political losses in the Jammu region and the Valley, has blamed the separatists for taking advantage of the situation.
In a bid to pacify people’s anger in Jammu over the dispute, the Congress now wants to take credit for brokering deal with the Sangharsh Samiti and put the blame on the PDP for the entire mess.
On the other hand, the PDP and the National Conference which have been thrown in the backstage by the resurgence of the separatist leaders and are struggling to end their increasing alienation in the wake of Amarnath controversy.
However, the two parties have taken a U-turn by announcing their participation in the elections.
Separatism and poll boycott
The Hurriyat leadership, for which the Amarnath row has proved to be a God-sent opportunity to regain their lost ground, have once again blown the pro-azadi whistle. The party, which claims to be the true representative of the Kashmiri Awam, has voiced its firm opposition to boycott elections terming them as futile exercise.
The Hurriyat leadership has blamed the Centre for diverting the focus from the real issues and projecting Kashmir as an "administrative" problem, which could be fixed by holding elections.
At a time when secessionist forces are active in the state, the mainstream regional political parties are raking up ‘semi-separatist cause’ in their election manifestoes as a last-ditch effort to woo voters.
In a smarter move, the PDP has come up with its Self-Rule Document and election manifesto, while the National Conference (NC) has called for the restoration of pre-1953 status of J&K, which means the state will have a complete control of the state affairs baring defence, foreign affairs and communications.
The Congress, while maintaining its commitment to Article 370, hopes for a breakthrough in the Sheikh-Indira Accord of 1975, which provided for a review of Centre-State relationship
Militancy
For decades militancy has been a major impediment to the rapid development of the state. The ongoing bloodbath and loss of countless human lives has put an indelible scar on the face of politicians who have encouraged regionalism just to consolidate their vote bank.
The surge in militancy and the Centre’s counter-insurgency operations have had a catastrophic affect on the locals, who find themselves alienated from the mainstream.
The continued armed conflict in the region has drained and diverted the available resources from development work to an unprecedented arms build-up. Brutal killings, bomb blasts, suicide attacks have become a part and parcel of an ordinary Kashmiri’s life.
In order to change the fate of Kashmir as a militancy-riddled state to a peacefully developing state, the onus is on the local voters to choose between a life under the shadow of bullets or good governance which comes through the power of ballet.
The situation also requires the locals to realise that the winds of development will sweep the state only when an acceptable solution to all major issues of conflict including Kashmir is achieved through diplomatic channels.
Development & good governance
Except the Kashmir row, traditionally there have been no takers for development and good governance in J&K during elections. The people of J&K rightfully deserve good governance and equal chances of bettering their lives and hence, one hopes, the electorate would surely weigh their options before casting their crucial vote this time.
The state which has heavily depended on the Centre’s assistance for its development, has in recent times witnessed a surge in unemployment among the Kashmiri youth. The scarcity of employment opportunities is distracting the youth to drugs and anti-social activities.
There are hundreds of jobless but educated youth in the Valley, who are finding it difficult to meet their daily needs. The problem of unemployment, combined with unfulfilled economic needs, and shattered dreams has pushed the Kashmiri youth into a deep sea of frustration, drugs, smoke and anti-social thinking. It has given a golden opportunity to various militant organisations to lure local youth and mobilise their support for jihad.
The issue of joblessness among local youth poses a big challenge for the political parties, who would be required to come out with sustainable plan to bring a paradigm change in their lives.
Tackling separatism could be a sure way out. For by keeping a check on violence, the tourism sector, that has the potential of generating lakhs of jobs, can once again be given a boost. The proof of this could be seen in months before the Amarmnath row broke out.
Eye on women voters
Political parties are also eyeing women voters and all attempts to woo them by holding rallies and door to door canvassing are in full throttle, realising the potential difference they can make in the elections.
The issue of women’s reservation is expected to become a subject of hot debate since the Congress leadership has agreed to give 33 per cent tickets to women in the Assembly elections. Meanwhile, its archrival the BJP will surely like to take credit for being the first party to do so and for championing the issues related to women.
The BJP has repeatedly blamed the previous Congress-PDP regime for its "failure on all fronts". The Congress and PDP leadership will have to deal with the allegations of failure in areas such as women empowerment, children employment, education, and creation of Women`s Commission. Besides, the rising prices of essential commodities are also expected to complicate things for the Grand Old Party during polls.
The Kashmir impasse
The Kashmir dispute has always been a major poll issue for political parties which have been using it as a trump card for consolidating their position elections after elections. The Kashmir problem has grown like a cancer in the past six decades and has been the focal point of an acute regional dispute that has pitted India and Pakistan against one another. Despite three wars between the two bitter rivals and the excessive militarization of the state, there seems to be no agreeable solution to the highly vexed issue in the near future.
However, just a few days ahead of the Assembly elections in J&K, a statement made by the Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama calling upon the US to facilitate Kashmir resolution, further brought the Kashmir issue to the limelight. He however backtracked saying it was a bilateral issue.
After Obama, it was UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, who ruled out any intervention in Kashmir unless both India and Pakistan approached the world body. He also called upon the two sides to continue dialogue to find an amicable solution.
The statement made by the two leaders is indeed an acknowledgement of New Delhi’s known stand on the Kashmir issue. It also endorses India’s view point that there is no need for an international mediation to resolve the Kashmir imbroglio. However, it is less likely to make any impact on the forthcoming Assembly elections.
Conclusion
Although, the political mood is catching up with the voters and the election campaigning has started in full swing, a low voter turn out this year can not be ruled out. The poll boycott announced by the separatist leaders is most likely to affect the voter turnout this year. In the 2002 assembly elections a commendable 44% voter turn out was recorded, which even validated the electoral exercise and the government that was formed after the polls.
Moreover, other factors like unfavourable weather in the coming weeks is also likely to complicate things for the state.
However, the Centre’s failure to conduct a free and fair elections in J&K will only add up to the divisive politics of the state by strengthening the separatist forces. The absence of an elected government in Jammu & Kashmir will not only corrode the roots of democracy but also alienate the people from the mainstream. At this juncture, the elections in J&K assume unusual significance since Muslims in the Valley are almost wholly alienated from both New Delhi and Srinagar. For the nation, a relatively peaceful electoral process will confer legitimacy for its democratic and secular polity.
